LABOUR will gain North Somerset from the Conservatives at the general election, a new polling projection by YouGov suggests.
The party looks set to win as many as 422 seats, with the Tories reduced to just 140, according to YouGov analysis published on Monday.
The poll, using the MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) technique and carried out for Sky News, suggests Sir Keir Starmer’s party is on course for a majority of 194 – the largest margin for any party since 1924.
The estimated seat projections are based on modelled responses from 53,334 adults in England and Wales and 5,541 in Scotland.
Rishi Sunak called a July election in a rain-soaked speech outside Number 10. (Image: Lucy North)
In the North Somerset constituency, it projects Labour candidate Sadik Al-Hassan to win with 40 per cent of the vote share.
Conservative candidate Sir Liam Fox (who held the seat until Parliament was dissolved on May 30) is expected to gain 35 per cent of the vote.
He is followed by Alexander Kokkinoftas (Reform UK, 10 per cent), Ash Cartman (Liberal Democrats, 8 per cent), and Oscar Livesey Lodwick (Green, six per cent).
At the last general election in 2019, Sir Liam won the North Somerset seat with a thumping majority of 17,536 – 52 per cent of the vote share.
He beat Labour's Hannah Young, who won 24 per cent of votes.
The Palace of Westminster in London.
“The model is designed to tell us what would happen if the general election were happening right now, with people’s vote intention (or lack of) as it currently stands,” YouGov's website says.
“It is not a forecast, but is designed to give a detailed, seat-by-seat look at the British political landscape as we head toward July 4.”
The model also projects that the Liberal Democrats would become the third-largest party in Westminster with 48 seats, usurping the Scottish National Party (SNP).
“Elsewhere, we are projecting that the Greens would win a second Westminster seat for the first time in their history, in Bristol Central, that Plaid Cymru would also win two seats, and that Reform UK would come away, as it stands, empty handed,” YouGov says.
“If these results were indeed replicated on polling day, it would be a seismic shift for British politics, with Boris Johnson’s ‘one seat for every day of the year’ thumping 2019 majority long a distant memory.”
The candidates for the North Somerset seat are: Sadik Al-Hassan (Labour), Ash Cartman (Liberal Democrats), Sir Liam Fox (Conservatives), Alexander Kokkinoftas (Reform UK) and Oscar Livesey Lodwick (Green).
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